Monday, October 25, 2010

If I were Dodger General Manager...or Ned's Assistant...

According to multiple reports, Frank McCourt is apparently now flush with TV ad revenue and says he's willing to spend money this off-season. Assuming he loses his divorce case, he will still retain control of the team for a couple of years thanks to the lengthy appeals process. Assuming that he is willing to spend some money (Though not Yankee money) to make this team a contender, I'm going to give an assessment of where I would spend it.

Let's start with the Dodger's position players:


Pos    No    Player    
 C       55      Martin (ARB)    
1B       7       Loney  (ARB)   

2B      13      Theriot (FA)  
3B      23      Blake      

SS      15      Furcal     

LF      30       Paul        
CF      27      Kemp     

RF      16      Ethier    

INF    14      Carroll   

C       17       Ellis         

C       28       Barajas (FA)       

   

Problems
There are a couple of problems here. First and foremost, Xavier Paul is not an everyday Left Fielder. However, he's also not expensive and is very solid in a back-up type of role. Theriot is a solid, if unspectacular 2nd Baseman and would come relatively cheap. Blake is no longer and everyday 3rd baseman and Russell Martin doesn't hit. Furcal is an MVP candidate when healthy, but he hasn't been healthy in 2 years.

Bright Spots
Andre Ethier is an all-star and is becoming a team leader. Matt Kemp, despite having a down year, still hit 28 Home Runs and drove in 89 RBI's. If he can put it all together, he's a potential MVP-type player. James Loney continues to hit well and many in the organization predict a power surge in the near future.

What Would Kevin Do?
It's time for Russell Martin to move on. He's still young and has high trade value, but is not working well in LA. re-signing Rod Barajas to platoon with AJ Ellis, who was great down the stretch last season, would more than make-up for Martin's departure while costing a fraction of his salary. Furcal is in his walk year and would not net much return, so there is no reason to get rid of him. Plus, Jamey Carroll is more than capable as a back-up, allowing Furcal to have more rest days. Theriot can be re-signed as well for 1-2 years until prospect David DeJesus is ready to step in.

On the Free Agent Market, although Carl Crawford is a top FA in the OF, the Dodgers need more power. Bringing back Jayson Werth or 2-3 year deal for Adam Dunn would add some much needed pop to the middle of the order, although Werth is expected to command a 5-6 year deal at between $10-13 million per year. Casey Blake is a great leader and clubhouse guy, and can still play, but not everyday. There is a mutual interest in returning Adrian Beltre to the Dodgers, who enjoyed a resurgent year and still has plenty of good years left. 4 years at $11-12 million would get it done.


Kevin's Re-tooled Roster       

C       28       Barajas
1B       7       Loney   

2B      13      Theriot  
3B      ???      Beltre     

SS      15      Furcal    
RF      ???     Werth/Dunn
CF      27      Kemp    
LF      16      Ethier   

INF    14      Carroll  
LF      30       Paul
3B      23      Blake
C       17       Ellis



We now move on to the Starting Pitching rotation:

Pos    No    Player

SP     22       Kershaw   
SP     58       Billingsley (ARB)
SP     29       Lilly           

SP     48       Ely            
SP     37       Monasterios

Problems
The Dodgers have only 3 proven starters on their current roster, and in a division with the Giants, Padres and Rockies, that's not going to work. Ely and Monasterios has some mild success, but ultimately need more seasoning or a change of direction. Vicente Padilla's inability to stay healthy means he won't be back.

Bright Spots
 Clayton Kershaw is officially a staff ace. He keeps getting better and better each year, and Chad Billingsley is finally past the mental mistakes that plagued him previously. Ted Lilly was incredible after being acquired and re-signing him was a great move to shore up the middle of the rotation.

What Would Kevin Do?
As I mentioned previously, Russ Martin is good trade bait, and Zach Greinke of the Royals is available. With the Yankees busy in pursuit of Cliff Lee, the Dodgers are primed to make an offer. Martin, John Ely and another prospect would more than likely get the deal done. As for the 5th starter, Monasterios should be the leading candidate heading into spring training.

Kevin's Re-tooled Roster
SP     22       Kershaw
SP     ???      Greinke  
SP     58       Billingsley
SP     29       Lilly                    
SP     37       Monasterios




And now, the bane of my existence, the bullpen:

Pos    No    Player
CL         51      Broxton

LHP       56      Kuo 
RHP      74      Jansen 
RHP      54      Belisario 
RHP      38      Troncoso 
RHP      50       Link 
RHP      59      Schlichting

Problems
Where do I even begin? Broxton was a mess in the 2nd half, Torre overused Troncoso, Belisario had too many personal issues to count, Cory Wade is still injured and the depth isn't there.

Bright Spots
Kuo was lights out all year long, Jansen came out of nowhere and dominated, Troncoso was solid before fatigue set in and Broxton's first half earned him a spot as the All-Star game closer.

What Would Kevin Do?
It's not hopeless, but this is where to hit Free Agency hard. Link and Schlichting need more seasoning and will be back in the minor's. Broxton will have an off-season to clear his head and the rest of the bullpen will get much needed rest, after consecutive extended seasons. Going after Scott Downs and Jose Contreras with a vengeance could probably net both. Relievers are seen as an after-thought in Free Agency but making them top priorities (while still going after OF and 3B needs) would put the Dodgers in the driver's seat. Joe Beimel


Kevin's Re-tooled Roster
CL         51      Broxton
LHP       56      Kuo  
RHP      74      Jansen 
RHP      54      Belisario 
RHP      38      Troncoso 
LHP       ??       Downs
RHP      ??       Contreras

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you grossly underestimate Greinke's value. The Royals, with about the best farm system going right now, aren't in need of many prospects, and they certainly aren't going to give up a Cy Young winner for Martin, Ely and a 'prospect'. Would love to see him in rotation with Kersh and Bills, but I'd make book it won't happen.

Anonymous said...

Russell Martin is "good trade bait?" Hilarious. He may still be young, but the Dodgers have run him into the ground and all of baseball knows it. He's marginal bait at best, and no way he could be the centerpiece of a deal for a pitcher like Greinke. Agree with Anonymous - Martin, Ely, and some nameless "prospect" gets you laughed off the phone. Greinke will command a deal at least equal to the one that netted the Rangers Cliff Lee.

(By the way, it's Ivan DeJesus, not David DeJesus.)

Kevin Michael said...

Whats with the anonymous comments all of the sudden?

asj said...

I have no clue what any of that means (as sadly, I don't really watch baseball) but I agree with EVERYTHING (and I'm not anonymous) bahaha. :)